Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 August 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
August 31, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1102 (N28W26) produced several low level B-class
events. Region 1101 (N13W06) remained stable and quiet and Region
1102 has grown in areal coverage and sunspot number. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for an isolated C-class events
for the next three days (31 August – 02 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 August)
due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective.
Mostly quiet levels are expected to return on days two and three (01
September – 02 September).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 075
Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 075/076/076
90 Day Mean 30 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 000/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

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