Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No spots and no flares
were observed on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. The
solar wind increased from 350 to 450 km/s. The Bz varied from +10 to
-10 through the UT day. This activity was due to the onset of a
southern coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field will be
quiet to unsettled with isolated periods of active conditions
possible on day one (31 August) and mostly quiet for the remainder
of the forecast period (1 – 2 September).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 067
Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 30 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01