Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (31 August – 02 September).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be initially quiet on the first day (31 August), but conditions are expected to increase to unsettled with a chance for active periods late in the day in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Unsettled to active levels should continue through the second day (01 September). Activity levels should decline to mostly unsettled levels on the third day (02 September).

III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 30 Aug 072
• Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 072/072/072
• 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 004/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 008/015-015/025-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/35/25
• Minor storm 10/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/10/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/40/25
• Minor storm 15/20/15
• Major-severe storm 10/15/10