Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Aug 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Aug 30 2207 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 806 (S17E37)
was responsible for all recorded flare activity today. The largest
event observed during the period was a C6/Sf flare occurring at
30/2155Z. This region remains a magnetically structured beta-gamma
group with little change seen in sunspot coverage from yesterday.
Region 803 (N11E01) continued to show signs of decay and was
quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high level
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 31 August. Active to
minor storming condition may be possible on 01 and 02 September due
to coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 Aug 086
- Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 085/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/009
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/009
- Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 006/010-012/015-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/20/30
- Minor storm 05/10/20
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/30/40
- Minor storm 10/15/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/10
