Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Aug 2003
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Though several regions
continue to reside on the solar disk, none have demonstrated a
strong level of activity. A solar filament (near S12W27, 17 deg
extent) collapsed at 2022 UTC, but no material appears to have been
ejected from the sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
None of the current active regions shows any signs of greater than
low potential for flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels with a
single period of major storming at 0600 UTC. The interplanetary
magnetic field continues to be oriented southward, and the solar
wind speeds continue to be elevated well above 450 km/s. During the
storm period, wind speeds were near 650 km/s. There is some
evidence in the energetic protons measured at the L1 orbit that a
small interplanetary shock passed at or near the major storming
period. The greater the 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next 24 to
36 hours. Near the end of the second day, a co-rotating interaction
region associated with a coronal hole should effect minor to major
storm levels, and continue as a high speed stream for the remainder
of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 30 Aug 114
- Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 115/115/115
- 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 012/015
- Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 015/018
- Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 012/012-020/020-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/30/30
- Minor storm 20/25/25
- Major-severe storm 05/15/15
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 20/30/30
- Major-severe storm 05/15/25
