Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Aug 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z

to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to high levels.  Region 95

(N07E65) produced an X1/Sf flare at 30/1329 UTC that had an

associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of

457 km/s, a 780 sfu Tenflare, and significant discrete radio bursts.

It appears to have fully rotated on to the visible disk and it

appears to contain a beta-gamma magnetic structure.  This region was

also responsible for multiple C-class flares during the period.

Region 87 (S08W33) continued to show steady decay in penumbral

structure as the magnetic delta complex is no longer evident.  New

Region 96 (S14E75) was assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

moderate levels.  Regions 87 and 95 are both capable of producing

isolated major flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep

Class M    75/75/75

Class X    15/15/15

Proton     01/01/05

PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           30 Aug 170

Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep  170/165/165

90 Day Mean        30 Aug 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  006/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug  008/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01