Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1105 (N18W22)
produced the only x-ray event of the period, a B1.8 flare at
03/1438Z. The three other regions on the disk remained quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be very
low with the chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next 3
days (4-6 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet on day 1 (4 September), and quiet to
active on days 2 and 3 (5-6 September) due to recurrent coronal hole
effects.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 077
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 078/078/076
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 005/005-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01