Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 Sep 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. An optically uncorrelated M1 flare occurred at 03/0054 UTC. Region 95 (N08E11) maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and is relative unchanged from yesterday. One new region was numbered today, Region 103 (N15E73). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 95 has the potential for M-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A weak shock, due to activity on 30 August, was observed at the L1 position by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at 03/1710 UTC. Solar wind velocity reached a peak around 390 km/s and the IMF had a Bz deflection of 10 nT. Current Bz is approximately -8 nT. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible on day one of the forecast period due to the weak CME passage and a recurring coronal hole. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit is expected to be moderate to high on day three of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep Class M 50/40/40 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Sep 171 Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 165/160/170 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 005/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 012/012-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/20/20 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
