Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity
occurred during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (4-6 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the current UTC day with an isolated
unsettled period due to an extended interval of negative Bz.
Otherwise, the field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (4-6 October).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 113
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05