Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1302 (N13W69) produced the largest event of the
period, a C7/2n x-ray flare at 03/0030Z. Region 1302 remains the
largest sunspot group on the visible disk but has begun to simplify
magnetically and decrease in size. Many of the regions on the disk,
also appear to be in a waning phase. In the southeast quadrant of
the disk, two new flux regions emerged with one becoming new Region
1310 (S33E16).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels for the next two days (04-05 October), as Region 1302
rotates off the west limb. Predominantly very low levels are
expected to prevail on day three (06 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
show nominal speeds around 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 October). An increase
to active and possible minor storm levels is expected on days two
and three (05-06 October) as three Earthbound CME’s are forecasted
to arrive.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 20/15/01
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 129
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/005-015/015-018/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/35
Minor storm 01/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/40/40
Minor storm 05/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/05