Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted
of three low-level B-class x-ray events: a B1 at 02/2337Z from
Region 1109 (N20W80), a B2 at 03/0438Z from Region 1110 (now behind
the west limb at N21), and a B1 at 03/1923Z from Region 1111
(N24E06). The disk was otherwise stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
generally very low, with a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
either of Region 1109 or 1111.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first day (04 October). For the second
and third days (05-06 October), mostly quiet conditions with some
unsettled periods are expected with a slight chance for isolated
active periods. The increase is forecast because of possible effects
from a weak high speed solar wind stream from a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 080
Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 03 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05