Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Old region 1112 (S19, L=208)
produced two C-class flares, the largest a C4.9 observed at
03/1221Z. A Type II radio sweep, with an estimated velocity of 837
km/s, and an east limb CME were associated with this event. Region
1120 (N39E17) has shown slight decay during the period. A filament
disappeared at 02/2337Z near S64E31.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class events for the next three days
(04-06 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (04-06
November).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 079
Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 03 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01