Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 Nov 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z

to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 177 (N16E18)

produced an M1/1f event at 03/1403 UTC.  This region remains the

largest and most complex of the numbered regions on the solar disk

and contains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  Region 180

(S10E43) has grown in spot count since yesterday and also contains a

beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  Three new regions were numbered

today as Region 183 (N19W24), 184 (S06E51), and 185 (S12E77).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate.  Region 177 and 180 have potential for producing an

M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm

conditions.  The solar wind data indicates the possible effects are

from a high speed stream associated with a coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be unsettled to active on 04 November with predominately

quiet to unsettled conditions for 05-06 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov

Class M    50/50/50

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           03 Nov 169

Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  170/170/175

90 Day Mean        03 Nov 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  013/021

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  020/025

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  015/020-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                35/30/30

Minor storm           20/10/10

Major-severe storm    10/05/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                40/35/30

Minor storm           25/20/10

Major-severe storm    10/10/05