Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 May 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Multiple C-class events were observed during the period with
the largest event being a C2/Sf x-ray flare from new Region 1475
(N05E61). Even though Region 1475 is magnetically classified as an
alpha group, it remains responsible for a majority of today’s
activity. There are currently seven sunspot regions on the disk,
with many regions stable or in a waning phase. No Earth directed
CME’s were observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next
three days (04 – 06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (04 –
06 May).
III. Event Probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 114
Predicted 04 May-06 May 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 03 May 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01