Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C-class x-ray flare
occurred from Region 1204 (N17E26) at 03/1052Z. A new region, 1206
(N22W18), was numbered and identified with a simple Beta magnetic
classification. A 20 degree filament erupted from N28W64 at around
14Z. A concurrent CME was observed off the northwest quadrant of the
sun on NASA SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs as well as on STEREO A/B
coronagraphs, but does not appear to be Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (4-6 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to quiet as coronal hole
(CH) high-speed stream (HSS) effects continued to decline. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (4-6 May).
III. Event Probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 107
Predicted 04 May-06 May 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 03 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 014/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01