Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 May 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only weak B-class
activity was observed. All regions appear stable. New Region 1068
(S19E76) was numbered during the period. LASCO C2 imagery observed
a slow-moving CME lifting off the SW limb at 02/2108Z. The CME is
not expected to become geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels. There is a chance for an isolated
C-class event from Region 1067 (N23E38).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels at
all latitudes, while high latitudes observed brief periods of major
storm conditions early in the period. Wind velocities remained high
during the period averaging about 675 km/s and peaking near 750 km/s
between 03/1200-1400Z. This activity is a result of a large,
recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately unsettled to active levels, with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes, for days one and two
(04 – 05 May). This activity is due to the persistence of the
coronal hole high speed wind stream. By day three (06 May),
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled as the
coronal hole high speed stream rotates out of a geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 080
Predicted 04 May-06 May 082/084/086
90 Day Mean 03 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 018/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 020/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 020/028-015/022-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/10
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 45/30/10
Minor storm 20/10/01
Major-severe storm 10/05/01