Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 May 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 May 03 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels durings days 1 – 2 (04 – 05 May).
Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 3
(06 May) with a chance for active levels at high latitudes due to a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 069
Predicted 04 May-06 May 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 03 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 005/005-005/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/25
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/40
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05