Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 March 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1164 (N25W06) produced
a C5/1N flare at 03/1420Z and was classified as an Ekc type group
with Beta-Gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 1167 (N14E31) was
numbered today and classified as a Bxo type group with Beta magnetic
characteristics. The remaining regions were quiescent. An
earth-directed CME was observed in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 03/0509Z
and in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 03/0636Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next three days (04-06 March) with a chance for an
M-class event from Region 1164.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm
conditons. The storms were confined to high latitudes while middle
latitudes experienced quiet to active levels. The disturbed
conditions were the result of the continued influence of the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that became geoeffective
earlier in the week. Solar wind values at the ACE spacecraft ranged
between 560 to 660 km/s during the period. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly southward from
03/05Z to 03/17Z, reaching -7 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to slowly return to quiet conditions during the forecast
period (04-06 March). Unsettled to active conditions are expected
on days 1 and 2 (04-05 March) with a slight chance for major storm
levels at high latitudes. Day 3 (06 March) will see a return to
predominantly quiet conditions as the coronal hole high speed stream
wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 121
Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 03 Mar 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 012/012-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 10/10/05