Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1496 (N16E33)
produced an impulsive M3 flare at 03/1755Z. The flare was
accompanied by a Tenflare (320 sfu) at 03/1753Z. A Type II emission
(est 1077 km/s) was also reported at 03/1759Z. A CME was later
observed in LASCO C3 imagery departing the northeast limb at
03/1854Z. Earlier in the day, C3 imagery showed a CME departing the
southeast limb at 03/1342Z associated with a filament eruption.
Analysis is underway to determine the potential geoeffectiveness of
the CMEs. New Region 1499 (N16E50) was numbered today as a small
Dso type group with beta magnetic characteristics. All regions on
the disk were classified as simple alpha or beta magnetic
characteristics.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a chance for an M-class flare for the next three days
(04-06 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Although the solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft
remained below 400 km/s for most of the period, the Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field remaind southward from
approximately 03/0400Z until about 02/1730Z, ranging from -5 nT to
as low as -15 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with an active
period from 03/12-15Z and a minor storm period from 03/15-18Z.
Conditions returned to active levels for the last period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active levels for days one and two (4-5 June) with
a chance for isolated minor storm periods. Day three (6 June) is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to be in a geoeffective position
throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 129
Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 03 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 014/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 014/020-014/027-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/40
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/60/55