Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S22W14) produced
a C2/Sf flare at 03/1617Z. This region is a Dkc group with a beta
magnetic classification. All other numbered regions on the disk
remained stable through the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to low with
a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with isolated minor storm conditions,
and isolated major storm levels at high latitudes, for day one (04
June). Activity is expected due to the combination of effects from
a coronal hole high-speed stream and a CME observed on 02 June.
Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active conditions are
expected for day two (05 June). Day three (06 June) is expected to
be quiet to unsettled as activity effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 107
Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 106/104/102
90 Day Mean 03 Jun 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 020/025-015/018-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 45/35/25
Minor storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01