Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 Jun 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jun 03 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z

to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Several weak, impulsive

C-class events were scattered throughout the period.  Region 9973

(S16W03) is still relatively large in spot count and areal coverage,

but appears to be losing some magnetic complexity and has been

mostly quiescent through the period.  Region 9978 (S20E21) has

increased somewhat in size and spot count, and along with Region

9979 (S28E36), is trending toward greater magnetic complexity.  Most

other active regions on the visible disk remain little changed.  New

Region 9984 (N19E13) was numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate for the forecast period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled, with an

isolated high-latitude active period observed during 02/2100-2400

UTC.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mainly unsettled, with some active and isolated minor

storm periods possible for the first day of the forecast period.

Thereafter, conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun

Class M    50/50/50

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           03 Jun 170

Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun  170/165/165

90 Day Mean        03 Jun 182

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  014/016

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  011/014

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  020/020-012/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                35/25/15

Minor storm           10/05/01

Major-severe storm    05/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                35/25/15

Minor storm           15/05/05

Major-severe storm    05/01/01