Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1515 (S16W10)
remained the predominant flare producer with an M2/Sf flare at
02/2356Z and frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 03/0342Z
associated with a 260 sfu Tenflare. This region, classified as an
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta, remained large and magnetically complex with
delta magnetic configurations within its interior and trailer spots.
Several coronal mass ejections (CME) were associated with flare
activity in Region 1515, but the bulk of the ejecta was directed
southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1513 (N16W22) retained
its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and displayed no significant
changes during the period. It produced isolated C-class flares
including a C8/Sf at 03/1441Z associated with a Type II radio sweep
(estimated shock velocity 1064 km/s). No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate through the period (04 – 06 July) with more M-class flares
expected from Region 1515.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with
active to minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. ACE solar
wind data indicated Earth remained within a negative-polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speeds were in the 504
to 715 km/s range with a gradual decreasing trend. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was variable in the +4/-4 nT
range. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (04 –
06 July) with a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS
effects. Recent CME activity from Region 1515 is not expected to
significantly disturb the geomagnetic field.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 146
Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 150/155/155
90 Day Mean 03 Jul 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 018/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 007/008-007/008-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 30/30/05