Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 July 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1244 (N16W38) produced a
C2/Sf flare at 03/1101Z. Earlier in the period, Region 1244 produced
a B9/Sf at 03/0024Z with an associated Type II radio sweep and a
Type IV radio sweep. A partial-halo CME was observed lifting off the
southwest with an estimated plane of sky speed of 525 km/s. The CME
was observed on LASCO C3 at 03/0142Z and on STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 at
03/0209Z. Region 1244 also produced a long duration B2 flare at
03/0807Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next three
days (04-06 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period at high latitudes between 03/0300-0600Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 July).
Quiet levels are expected on days two and three (05-06 July).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 086
Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 086/086/086
90 Day Mean 03 Jul 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01