Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 July 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
A disappearing filament was observed on EIT near the southwest limb
(S35W65) at 02/2300Z. The SOHO C2 imagery observed a possible CME
associated with this event at 03/0130Z. In addition, an eruption
along a filament channel in the northeast (N35E55) was observed,
along with an EIT wave in the southwest (S40W55). These events
occurred at approximately the same time (03/0830Z) and were also
associated with possible CME events visible on SOHO C2 imagery
around 03/0950Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low throughout the forecast period (04-06 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled as the effects from the
coronal hole high speed stream subsided. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet throughout the forecast period (04-06
July).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 072
Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 03 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01