Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 Jul 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
July 3, 2002
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jul 03 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 17 (S18W63) produced an
X1/1B flare at 03/0213 UTC. There was also an M5 flare at 03/2010
UTC apparently in Region 17 as well, although the optical class is
currently uncertain. Region 19 (S18E20) also produced a number of
flares, the largest being a C7/1N at 03/1154 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are possible in Regions 17 and 19. Region
17 is the most likely source of a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 173
Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 160/150/145
90 Day Mean 03 Jul 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 004/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 005/008-005/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.