Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 Jul 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jul 03 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z

to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 17 (S18W63) produced an

X1/1B flare at 03/0213 UTC. There was also an M5 flare at 03/2010

UTC apparently in Region 17 as well, although the optical class is

currently uncertain. Region 19 (S18E20) also produced a number of

flares, the largest being a C7/1N at 03/1154 UTC.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be

moderate. M-class flares are possible in Regions 17 and 19. Region

17 is the most likely source of a major flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul

Class M    60/60/60

Class X    10/10/10

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           03 Jul 173

Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul  160/150/145

90 Day Mean        03 Jul 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  004/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul  005/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  005/008-005/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/20

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/25

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01