Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (4-6 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active conditions across
all latitudes. The activity was the result of sporadic polarity
shifts accompanied by a period of extended southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled days 1-2 (4-5 January) as
fluctuating polarity is expected to continue prior to a forecasted
solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) on day 2. On day 3 (6
January), the onset of a coronal high speed steam (CH HSS) is
expected to produce unsettled and active conditions with a minor
storm possible at onset.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 135
Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 03 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 007/008-007/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/50
Minor storm 05/05/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/40
Minor storm 20/20/50
Major-severe storm 05/05/10