Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1141
(N35W50) produced isolated low-level B-class flares. No significant
changes were observed in Region 1141. It remained a Bxo group with a
beta magnetic configuration. Region 1142 (S13E07) showed an increase
in intermediate spots and was classified as a Dsi group with a beta
magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period (04 – 06 January) with a chance for an
isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 – 2 (04 – 05 January).
Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day
3 (06 January) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream begins
to disturb the field.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 092
Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 092/092/090
90 Day Mean 03 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01