Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 February 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The disk and
limb was quiet and stable with no Earth-directed CMEs observed
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (04 – 06 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
high latitude active periods due to the waning effects of a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. During the period, ACE
satellite observations indicated wind speeds averaged about 425 km/s
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field varied
between +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (04 –
06 February).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 111
Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 03 Feb 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 004/005-005/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01