Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 Feb 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
February 3, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1043 (N25W18)
remains stable and has not produced any significant activity within
the past 24 hours. The return of old Region 1040 is evident in EIT and SXI imagery. A CME was observed off the northeast limb at about 03/0500Z and was associated with a B1 long duration X-ray event between 0450-0700Z. A second CME that appears earthward directed was observed on both Stereo A and B. There are two coronal holes visible on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with only a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was generally unsettled with an active period from 02/2100Z-03/0000Z. Solar wind speeds were elevated throughout the period with peak velocities around 580 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (04-05 February). An increase to mostly unsettled levels is expected in the third day (06 February) in response to a high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 074
Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 076/078/080
90 Day Mean 03 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.