Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1363 (S22E16) has been the most active region on the
disk, with multiple C-class events. Region 1363 also continues to
grow in spot count, areal coverage, and magnetic complexity
(beta-gamma). New Region 1366 (N17E65) was numbered early in the
period as it rotated onto the visible disk. Multiple CME’s have been
observed in the past 24 hours, but none appear to have any Earth
directed components.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(04-06 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Slightly elevated activity was observed at high
latitudes, with an isolated period at minor storm levels, do to the
arrival of a transient CME. Signatures from the ACE spacecraft
indicated this transient’s arrival around 02/1800Z with a slight
increase in the lower energy protons, an increase in solar wind
speeds coupled with elevated solar wind density, and finally an
increase in total IMF intensity around 8 nT. The Penticton 10 cm
flux is estimated today at 160 sfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be a predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(04-06 December).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 160
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 165/165/160
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 005/005-005/005-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 01/01/01
Minor storm 00/00/00
Major-severe storm 00/00/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 13/13/13
Minor storm 08/07/07
Major-severe storm 02/01/01