Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 Dec 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day one (04 Dec). Quiet to unsettled
levels with a slight chance for isolated active periods are expected
on days two and three (05-06 Dec) as a recurrent coronal hole high
speed becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 072
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 072/073/073
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/10
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/30/20
Minor storm 01/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05