Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 Dec 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 208 (N11E22) produced
the largest event of the period, an impulsive C8/Sn flare at 03/0818
UTC.  This region has declined in penumbral area but retains
moderate magnetic complexity.  Region 207 (S19W06) produced a few
B-class events over the course of the day.  New Region 213 (N15E79)
rotated into view and was numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with a chance for isolated moderate flare
activity during the next three days.  Region 208 is a possible
source of low level M-class flare activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again for
the fifth consecutive day.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the forecast period. 
Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may persist
at high levels for the next one to two days.

III.  Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    30/30/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 146
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec  150/165/170
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 169

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  010/012-005/010-005/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01