Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with one isolated active
period observed at middle latitudes between 03/0600 – 0900Z.  An
extended period of southward IMF Bz (-5 to -6 nT) was observed
between 02/2000Z – 03/1000Z that contributed to the unsettled to
active conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one of the forecast period (04 August).
On days two and three (05 – 06 August), field conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled as a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream will become geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 067
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  010/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  005/005-007/007-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/25/25
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01