Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 3 April 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1183 (N17W25) produced a
C1 event at 03/0519Z. A CME was associated with a B8/Sf event from
Region 1173 (S18W86) at 02/2347Z. At 03/0024Z, Goes-15 SXI imagery
detected material movement from the SW limb that was later observed
in STEREO-B COR2 imagery at 03/0109Z and STEREO-A COR2 imagery at
03/0409Z. Using this imagery, a preliminary plane-of-sky speed
estimate of 322 km/s was assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity (isolated
M-class) from Region 1183 during the period (04 – 06 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels in response
to a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (04 – 06 April).
The CME mentioned above is not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 114
Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 110/105/105
90 Day Mean 03 Apr 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 013/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01