Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Sep 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1027 (N23W62)
indicated a slight decrease in area and spot number and maintains a
bipolar magnetic configuration. No significant flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (30 September). Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on days two and three (01-02 October) due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 072
Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 072/072/070
90 Day Mean 29 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01