Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Sep 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Sep 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for isolated active conditions at high latitudes for day one (30 September) of the forecast period. On day two (01 October) activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor storm periods at middle latitudes and major storm conditions at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Activity should decrease to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active conditions at high latitudes for day three (02 October) as the high speed stream continues.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Sep 067
• Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 008/010-020/025-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/30/10
• Minor storm 05/25/05
• Major-severe storm 01/10/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/40/20
• Minor storm 15/30/15
• Major-severe storm 05/15/05