Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity remains at very low levels. New Region 915 (S06W46) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible on 30 September and 01 October due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return on 02 October as the coronal hole wanes.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Sep 077
• Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 015/020-015/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 15/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/30/20
• Minor storm 20/15/05
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01