Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Sep 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Sep 29 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 810 (N08W89) and 812 (S03W08) have been quiescent. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Sep 074
• Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 012/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 006/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 008/015-008/015-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/25
• Minor storm 20/20/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05