Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Sep 2003
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 464 continues to
produce numerous C-class flares, including a long duration C3.8/Sf
at 29/2004 UTC. The region may also have produced an impulsive C5.1
at 29/1610 UTC, although the flare is not optically correlated. A
24 degree filament at S20W28 erupted between 2219 and 2319 UTC on
the 28th.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 464 may produce C- or M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one. There is a slight chance that a
CME associated with an erupting filament observed on 28 Sep may
cause unsettled to active conditions on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
- Class M 50/50/50
- Class X 15/15/15
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 29 Sep 135
- Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 130/130/125
- 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 002/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 005/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 005/008-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/35/35
- Minor storm 10/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/40/40
- Minor storm 15/20/20
- Major-severe storm 05/15/15
