Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There were five, low level
C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a
C3 at 1452Z from Region 1324 (N12W85). Two of the C-flares appeared
to originate from a region on the east limb at about 10 degrees
North. Region 1330 (N07W22) continues to be the largest group on the
disk at this time but was quiet and stable. A slow CME was observed
off the northeast limb late in the period but STEREO observations
indicated that this was a back-sided event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for the next two days (30-31 October). The increase is
expected due to a high speed stream from a coronal hole. Quiet
levels are expected to prevail on the third day (01 November).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 123
Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 29 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 010/010-010/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/10
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/05