Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1117
(N20W55) produced occasional B-class flares during the period. The
largest of these was a B4 flare at 29/1732Z. Region 1117 showed a
decrease in areal coverage and sunspot count. No new regions were
numbered during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels, with a slight chance for an M-class event
from Region 1117.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first day (30
October) due to a weak CME observed on 26 October. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet levels on the second day (31 October).
Quiet to active levels are expected on the third day (01 November),
with a slight chance for a minor storm period at high latitudes.
The increase in activity is expected due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 086
Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 084/084/082
90 Day Mean 29 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 007/007-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/01/25
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/01/30
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05