Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Oct 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. ACE solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained under the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Velocities gradually increased from approximately 475 to 740 km/sec during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels during days 1 – 2 (30 – 31 October). Mostly quiet levels are expected on day 3 (01 November) as the high-speed stream subsides.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Oct 067
• Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 067/068/069
• 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 005/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 012/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 010/015-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/10
• Minor storm 10/10/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/15
• Minor storm 15/15/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01