Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Activity was due to the continued influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around 540 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible at high latitudes on 30 October. On 31 October and 01 November, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Oct 073
• Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 012/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 014/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 005/005-005/005-002/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Oct 2006