Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Oct 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Oct 29 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. As it has the past few days,
Region 693 (S14E46) produced numerous impulsive C-class flares. The
region continues to exhibit bright plage and maintains a degree of
magnetic complexity. Elsewhere, little else of significance
occurred.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 693 should produce additional C-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An enhancement in the
southward component of the IMF brought brief intervals of unsettled
to active conditions.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled conditions for the next 72
hours.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov

• Class M 30/30/30
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Oct 129
• Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 130/125/125
• 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 106

• V. Geomagnetic A Indices
• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 005/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 010/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05