Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Oct 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours
due to an M1/Sf at 0320 UTC from Region 162 (N25W72). The group
produced additional subflares throughout the day including a C9/Sf
at 1633 UTC. The penumbral area that contained the delta
configuration yesterday appears to be breaking up today. Region 173
(S18W82), which emerged yesterday, continued to develop and produced
numerous subflares during the latter half of the day. New Region 175
(N15E57) was assigned today and produced a C8/Sf at 1530 UTC. New
regions 174 (S25E55) and 176 (N13E75) were also assigned today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. There continues to be a slight chance for major flare
activity from Region 162.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled during the
past 24 hours. There was an isolated active period from 0900-1200
UTC. The high speed coronal hole solar wind stream showed signs of
decline throughout the day and nominal solar wind plasma parameters
were observed by forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.

III.  Event Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 162
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov  160/160/165
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 176

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  010/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  012/012-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05