Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1361 (N18E07) and 1362
(N08E49) each produced the largest flares of the period; C2 flares
at 29/0332Z and 29/0900Z respectively. A non-geoeffective CME was
seen off the east limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 28/1800Z. This
CME was likely associated with an eruption near Region 1362 seen in
SDO/AIA 171 imagery beginning at 28/1655Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated minor
storm period observed at middle latitudes. At approximately
28/2115Z, increases in solar wind speed (380 – 515 km/s) and total
magnetic field (5.8 – 13.5 nT) was observed at the ACE spacecraft.
A 45 nT Sudden Impulse subsequently was observed in the Boulder
magnetometer at 28/2154Z. Activity was due to the effects from the
26/0712Z CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days 1-2 (30 November – 01
December). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (02
December).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 141
Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 145/145/140
90 Day Mean 29 Nov 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 008/008-008/007-005/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 08/08/05
Minor storm 02/02/01
Major-severe storm 00/00/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 16/16/12
Major-severe storm 11/11/05