Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Region 1130 (N13W14) has grown slightly and is a Dai-Beta type spot
group. A filament disappeared near N19W10. The eruption was
visible on SDO/AIA 193 at approximately 29/0100 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for isolated C-class events for the next three
days (30 Nov-02 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for
isolated active periods for days one and two (30 Nov-01 Dec) due to
a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for day three (02 Dec) as the effects from the coronal
hole high-speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 083
Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 083/083/083
90 Day Mean 29 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01