Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to a C1 flare from Region 927 (N10E32) at 1518Z. Region 927 continues to grow and has developed some magnetic complexity: there appears to be a small delta configuration in the dominant trailer spot. Region 926 (S10E19) is growing slowly but is magnetically simple and only managed to produce one B-class flare during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (30 November – 2 December). Region 927 is the most likely source for an isolated C-flare. There is a very slight chance for an M-class event over the next three days, especially if the growth trend in Region 927 continues.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet with a chance for some unsettled periods at high latitudes for the next three days (30 November – 2 December).

III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Nov 085
• Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 004/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 006/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 007/005-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05