Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Nov 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Nov 29 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 824 (S14W48) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf event occurring at 29/1709Z. This region has seen only slight decay since yesterday. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 824 has the capability of producing an isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels through 30 November. Minor storm conditions with a chance for isolated high latitude major storm periods are possible on 01 and 02 December as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Nov 085
• Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 006/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 003/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 012/015-015/020-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/30/25
• Minor storm 10/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/40/40
• Minor storm 15/25/25
• Major-severe storm 10/15/15