Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 Nov 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Nov 29 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There was one C-class flare
today, a C3/Sf at 0143 UTC from Region 707 (S14E02). There are
currently three spotted regions on the disk and they are all
essentially unchanged from yesterday.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (30 November – 2 December).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed,
temperature, and total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) continued
to be enhanced after yesterday’s solar sector boundary crossing. The
Z-component of the IMF has been fluctuating northwards and
southwards with values typically between -7 nT to +7 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days (29
November – 2 December) due to persistence from currently enhanced
solar wind and the onset of effects from a favorably positioned
coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 29 Nov 111
• Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 110/110/115
• 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 016/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 016/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 015/020-015/020-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 20/20/20
• Major-severe storm 10/10/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 30/30/30
• Major-severe storm 15/15/15